A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
